Time series analysis of Nevirapine syrup consumption in prevention of mother-to-child transmission and optimal supply chain model in Oshana region, Namibia


Submitted: 26 January 2019
Accepted: 17 August 2019
Published: 29 April 2020
Abstract Views: 578
PDF: 323
HTML: 3
Publisher's note
All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.

Authors

HIV/AIDS continue to be serious communicable disease whose impact on public health in Namibia is massive. It is estimated that the prevalence rate of HIV in Namibia is 17.2%, ranking the country as the fifth highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Some improvement in reducing the number of cases of HIV/AIDS has been made in the country, but the sporadic shortage of medicines continues to slow down government efforts to foster the emergence of an HIVfree generation of Namibians. Develop and demonstrate a mathematical supply-chain model, which can establish parameters to prevent stock-outs of NVP suspension. The study adopted retrospective approach to acquire data from 2012-2016. Gamma supply chain model was developed as the optimal model for NVP syrup and forecasted consumption for 2017-2018 was determined. It is a recommendation of this study that new guidelines for implementation of optimal supply-chain models at the regional medical store, health centers and clinics be implemented for Nevirapine syrup.


Mabirizi D, Phulu B, Churfo W, et al. Implementing an Integrated Pharmaceutical Management Information System for Antiretrovirals and Other Medicines: Lessons From Namibia. Glob Health Sci Pract. 2018;6(4):723–735.. doi: 10.9745/GHSP-D-18-00157 DOI: https://doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-18-00157

Mutenda N, Bukowski A, Nitschke AM, et al. Assessment of the World Health Organization's HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Main and Decentralized Outreach Antiretroviral Therapy Sites in Namibia. PLoS One. 2016;11(12):e0166649.. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166649 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0166649

Li G, Lv F, Guan X. A collaborative scheduling model for the supply-hub with multiple suppliers and multiple manufacturers. Scientific World Journal. 2014;2014:894573. doi: 10.1155/2014/894573 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/894573

Türkay M, Saraçoğlu Ö, Arslan MC. Sustainability in Supply Chain Management: Aggregate Planning from Sustainability Perspective. PLoS One. 2016;11(1):e0147502. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147502 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147502

Li L, Wang Y. Coordinating a supply chain with a loss-averse retailer and effort dependent demand. Scientific World Journal. 2014;2014:231041. doi: 10.1155/2014/231041 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/231041

Yang L, Huang C, Liu C. Distribution of essential medicines to primary care institutions in Hubei of China: effects of centralized procurement arrangements. BMC Health Serv Res. 2017;17(1):727. doi: 10.1186/s12913-017-2720-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-017-2720-3

Fang H, Jiang D, Yang T, et al. Network evolution model for supply chain with manufactures as the core [published correction appears in PLoS One. 2018 Apr 13;13(4):e0196036]. PLoS One. 2018;13(1):e0191180. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0191180 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191180

Chapman F, Benjamin P, Sarah H, et al. “Classical inventory model.” The scientific world journal 40.5 (2014): 1426–1441.

Liao G, Hung C, Meng C, et al. “The Study of the Optimal Parameter Settings in a Hospital Supply Chain System in Taiwan.” The Scientific World Journal 2014 (2014): 967140. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/967140

Lane J, Verani A, Hijazi M, et al. “Monitoring HIV and AIDS Related Policy Reforms: A Road Map to Strengthen Policy Monitoring and Implementation in PEPFAR Partner Countries. PLoS ONE, 2016. 11(2), e0146720. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0146720 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0146720

District coordination committee report;2016.

Ministry of Health and Social Services; Directorate of tertiary health care and clinical support services; division of pharmaceutical services; Pharmaceutical standard operation procedures 2nd Edition 2014

Braglia M, Castellano F. “A novel approach to safety stock management in a coordinated supply chain with controllable lead time using present value”. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. 2016; 32(1):99-112. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.2126

Magesa, E., Mitonga Kabwebwe, H., & Angula, P. (2020). Time series analysis of Nevirapine syrup consumption in prevention of mother-to-child transmission and optimal supply chain model in Oshana region, Namibia. Journal of Public Health in Africa, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.4081/jphia.2020.1029

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Citations