Original Research

Climate factors and dengue fever in Burkina Faso from 2017 to 2019

Cheick A. Ouattara, Tiandiogo I. Traore, Seydou Traore, Ibrahim Sangare, Clément Z. Meda, Léon G.B. Savadogo
Journal of Public Health in Africa | Vol 13, No 1 | a387 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4081/jphia.2022.2145 | © 2024 Cheick A. Ouattara, Tiandiogo I. Traore, Seydou Traore, Ibrahim Sangare, Clément Z. Meda, Léon G.B. Savadogo | This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 10 April 2024 | Published: 24 May 2022

About the author(s)

Cheick A. Ouattara, Nazi Boni University, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso; and, 2Chuss - Center Hospital University Sourou Sanou, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
Tiandiogo I. Traore, Nazi Boni University, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
Seydou Traore, Chuss - Center Hospital University Sourou Sanou, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
Ibrahim Sangare, Nazi Boni University, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
Clément Z. Meda, Nazi Boni University, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
Léon G.B. Savadogo, Nazi Boni University, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso

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Abstract

Dengue is now a major health concern in sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the influence of local meteorological factors on the incidence of dengue is an important element for better prediction and control of this disease. This study aims to assess the impact of meteorological factors on dengue transmission in the central region of Burkina Faso. We analyzed the lagged effects of meteorological factors on the weekly incidence of dengue from 2017 to 2019 in the central region of Burkina Faso using a General Additive Model. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed have a significant non-linear effect on dengue cases in the region with 83% of case variance explained. The optimal temperature that increases dengue cases was 27°C to 32°C for the maximum temperature and 18°C to 20°C for the minimum temperature with a decrease beyond that. The maximum temperature shifted by six weeks had the best correlation with dengue incidence. The estimated number of dengue cases increases as the maximum relative humidity increases from 15 to 45% and then from 60 to 70%. In general, an increase in daily wind speed is estimated to decrease the number of daily dengue cases. The relationship between rainfall and dengue cases was not significant. This study provides local information about the effect of meteorological factors on dengue that should help improve predictive models of dengue cases in Burkina Faso and contribute to the control of this disease.

Keywords

Dengue; humidity; rainfall; temperature; wind speed

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